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Initial Points On Employment Side of NFP

US DATA
  • NFP payrolls growth stronger than expected in Apr (253k vs cons 185k) but with a heavy two-month downward revision of -149k shared almost equally over both Feb and Mar. It leaves the 3mma slowing to 222k from 284k in Dec’22 and vs the 163k averaged in 2019.
  • Those downward revisions were almost all in the private sector with the public sector keeping its recent jobs surge. Private 3mma down to 182k (2019 av 146k).
  • A fresh multi-decade low for the u/e rate of 3.39%, surprisingly falling from 3.50%. Cons 3.6 but primary dealer analysts had flagged scope for hawkish surprise. Led by the labor force falling -43k after four stellar months in which 2.2mln people joined.

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