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IP Falls as Supply Bottlenecks Worsen

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY MAR IP -3.9% M/M, -3.5% Y/Y; FEB +0.1%r M/M

  • German industrial production contracted by 3.9% in March compared to February.
  • Today's print saw the m/m print 2.6pp lower and the y/y print 3.1pp lower than consensus forecasts.
  • Due to the onset of the Ukraine war, supply chain disruptions have become more acute. The ifo Institute study found that in March 80% of industrial producers had issues with bottlenecks and sourcing input and raw materials.
  • Capital goods production dropped by 6.6% m/m, as firms showed less incentive to invest due to economic and political uncertainty and intermediate goods production fell by 3.8% m/m.
  • The March data highlights the effects of the Ukraine war on both investment and production sentiment, as well as global supply issues. The April release will be vital in addressing how lasting these effects will be following the initial shock.

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