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BRAZIL: IPCA-15 Inflation, December Current Account, FDI

BRAZIL
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  • IPCA-15 inflation data at 1200GMT(0700ET) will be the last ahead of next week’s Copom meeting, but are unlikely to have much bearing on the interest rate decision, with another 100bp hike on Jan 29 widely signalled and expected. Nonetheless, analysts expect headline inflation to slow to 4.36% y/y in the first half of January, from 4.71% previously, which would be a welcome sign that inflation is returning below the upper limit of the BCB’s target band.
  • Before then, December current account and FDI stats cross at 1130GMT(0630ET). Analysts expect the current account deficit to widen to $12.8bn, while the FDI balance also records a deficit last month.
    • Dec. Foreign Direct Investment, est. -$2b, prior $6.96b
    • Dec. Current Account Balance, est. -$12.8b, prior -$3.06b
    • Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 4.36%, prior 4.71%
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. -0.02%, prior 0.34%
  • On the political front, President Lula has a meeting with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and other ministers from 1230GMT(0730ET). Yesterday, Haddad said that there was no need to use fiscal policy to contain food prices, adding the proposal for a food subsidy was just gossip.
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  • IPCA-15 inflation data at 1200GMT(0700ET) will be the last ahead of next week’s Copom meeting, but are unlikely to have much bearing on the interest rate decision, with another 100bp hike on Jan 29 widely signalled and expected. Nonetheless, analysts expect headline inflation to slow to 4.36% y/y in the first half of January, from 4.71% previously, which would be a welcome sign that inflation is returning below the upper limit of the BCB’s target band.
  • Before then, December current account and FDI stats cross at 1130GMT(0630ET). Analysts expect the current account deficit to widen to $12.8bn, while the FDI balance also records a deficit last month.
    • Dec. Foreign Direct Investment, est. -$2b, prior $6.96b
    • Dec. Current Account Balance, est. -$12.8b, prior -$3.06b
    • Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 4.36%, prior 4.71%
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. -0.02%, prior 0.34%
  • On the political front, President Lula has a meeting with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and other ministers from 1230GMT(0730ET). Yesterday, Haddad said that there was no need to use fiscal policy to contain food prices, adding the proposal for a food subsidy was just gossip.