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IPCA Inflation Data Due Tomorrow, 2022 Growth Estimates Declining

BRAZIL
  • DI Swap rates were seen higher in four of the first five sessions in 2022 with the belly of the curve rising around 80 basis points. Pressure on Bolsonaro’s government to raise public sector wages to keep up with higher consumer prices, combined with higher US yields are contributing to the pressure seen on the local swaps curve.
    • Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro floated the possibility that public servants won’t receive a raise for the fourth year in a row stating on Saturday, “It could be that there is no adjustment for anyone”.
    • Potential adjustments will be eagerly monitored as we approach the elections and markets focus on potential fiscal implications.
  • Markets focus this week will be on Tuesday’s IPCA inflation data. Estimates indicate that monthly inflation should decelerate to 0.65%, bringing the annual headline rate back below 10% from 10.74% in November.
  • Brazil’s central bank head Roberto Campos Neto has tested positive for Covid as a new wave of infections sweeps through the country. Rising Covid case rates across the region have been evident and continues to be attributed to the highly contagious Omicron variant.
    • Brazil registered 63,292 new Covid-19 cases last Friday, according to Health Ministry. The new wave of infections is likely to have less of an impact to activity, however, will closely be monitored, especially against a backdrop of falling growth expectations for 2022 as set out in this morning’s BCB Focus Survey.
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