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Iran Deal Jitters Slow USD/RUB's Push Lower, Sticky Support Ahead

  • USD/RUB opens higher towards 73.00 on the back of a slightly firmer USD and early selling pressure on oil markets.
  • Brent trades almost 1% in the red this morning as traders await the outcome of last weeks Iran nuclear deal talks amid concerns of greater supply injections.
  • Oil Analyst notes, however, that there may not be a deal before the Iranian Presidential elections. Focus today is on CPI, expected to tick higher to 5.8%.
  • Last week's comms from the CBR sounded rather hawkish, highlighting sanctions risks and continued caution RE price pressures and the demand-led recovery boosting CPI over the summer before moderating into year-end.
  • Finance ministry also noted upside revisions to the 4.3% year-end forecast in July.
  • Hawkish bets should continue to buoy RUB this week into the CBR meeting, where 25-50bp of hikes are on the table.
  • USD/RUB continues to trade heavily, having broken 73.00 on Friday with the sell-side noting offshore models adding to RUB longs on the break of the level.
  • Long-term support in the 73-72.50 zone may prove sticky as it has done since Dec-2020.
  • Intraday Sup1: 72.7778, Sup2: 72.5433, Res1: 73.0261, Res2: 73.2003
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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