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MNI DATA FORECASTS: RBA, BOC To Fore
Iran Deal Jitters Slow USD/RUB's Push Lower, Sticky Support Ahead
- USD/RUB opens higher towards 73.00 on the back of a slightly firmer USD and early selling pressure on oil markets.
- Brent trades almost 1% in the red this morning as traders await the outcome of last weeks Iran nuclear deal talks amid concerns of greater supply injections.
- Oil Analyst notes, however, that there may not be a deal before the Iranian Presidential elections. Focus today is on CPI, expected to tick higher to 5.8%.
- Last week's comms from the CBR sounded rather hawkish, highlighting sanctions risks and continued caution RE price pressures and the demand-led recovery boosting CPI over the summer before moderating into year-end.
- Finance ministry also noted upside revisions to the 4.3% year-end forecast in July.
- Hawkish bets should continue to buoy RUB this week into the CBR meeting, where 25-50bp of hikes are on the table.
- USD/RUB continues to trade heavily, having broken 73.00 on Friday with the sell-side noting offshore models adding to RUB longs on the break of the level.
- Long-term support in the 73-72.50 zone may prove sticky as it has done since Dec-2020.
- Intraday Sup1: 72.7778, Sup2: 72.5433, Res1: 73.0261, Res2: 73.2003
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