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Is The Rally Over? A Look At The 50-Day EMA
Copper is under pressure today.
- A downtrend has been in place since May 10 when the commodity stalled at $488.80.
- The month-long downleg is likely a correction within a broader uptrend. However, today's sell-off has resulted in the break of the 50-day EMA.
- The 50-day EMA highlights a strong area of support in an uptrend, and levels below the EMA also highlight an area where demand potentially exists, assuming sentiment remains bullish.
- The chart below displays a number of instances, since March 2020, where a corrective pullback found support either below the 50-day EMA or just ahead of it.
- Price is currently trading below the 50-day EMA.
- The break lower reinforces the current bearish risk however, any signs of a base near-term could represent an early reversal signal. This would suggest the end of the correction and an early resumption of the broader uptrend.
- An extension lower though would expose three key support levels:
- SUP 1: 423.62 - Trendline support drawn off the Oct 2, 2020 low
- SUP 2: 394.19 - Trendline support drawn off the Mar 19, 2020 low
- SUP 3: 384.90 - Mar 4 low
- Currently, while the moving average overview remains in a bull-mode and price trades above both trendline supports, the current bear cycle is considered a correction. A change in the EMA set-up and a breach of trendline supports however, would alter the picture.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.