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Is The Rally Over? A Look At The 50-Day EMA

COPPER TECHS

Copper is under pressure today.

  • A downtrend has been in place since May 10 when the commodity stalled at $488.80.
  • The month-long downleg is likely a correction within a broader uptrend. However, today's sell-off has resulted in the break of the 50-day EMA.
  • The 50-day EMA highlights a strong area of support in an uptrend, and levels below the EMA also highlight an area where demand potentially exists, assuming sentiment remains bullish.
  • The chart below displays a number of instances, since March 2020, where a corrective pullback found support either below the 50-day EMA or just ahead of it.
  • Price is currently trading below the 50-day EMA.
  • The break lower reinforces the current bearish risk however, any signs of a base near-term could represent an early reversal signal. This would suggest the end of the correction and an early resumption of the broader uptrend.
  • An extension lower though would expose three key support levels:
    • SUP 1: 423.62 - Trendline support drawn off the Oct 2, 2020 low
    • SUP 2: 394.19 - Trendline support drawn off the Mar 19, 2020 low
    • SUP 3: 384.90 - Mar 4 low
  • Currently, while the moving average overview remains in a bull-mode and price trades above both trendline supports, the current bear cycle is considered a correction. A change in the EMA set-up and a breach of trendline supports however, would alter the picture.




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