POWER
Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 5 – slowed the rate of their decline from the previous week, dropping by 0.10TWh to 2.53TWh as power demand in the region fell on the week.
- Reserves narrowed their deficit to the same week in 2024 to 0.09TWh from 0.15TWh in week 4.
- But stocks are now in line with the five-year average last week after being at a 0.02TWh surplus the week prior – hitting a new low so far this year.
- Stocks slowed the rate of their fall as demand dropped on the week at 33.53GW in week 5 compared to 34.36GW the week prior.
- However, there was no precipitation in Torino near Italy’s hydro-intensive region last week, compared to 0.5mm the week prior – limiting inflows into reserves. This is also below the 30-year norm.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF weather forecast for Torino suggests precipitation to total 23.05mm over 3-9 February – which could reduce pressure on stocks.
- Italy’s hydro balance is forecast to end this week at -3.81TWh on 9 February, down from -3.78TWh in the previous forecasts. The balance is further expected to end at -4.32TWh on 20 February.
Wind generation in Italy for the remainder of this week is forecast between 0.962-2.17GW or 9-20% load factors, with output early next week at 5-12% load factors over 10-14 February, according to SpotRenewables.
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