Italy 2023 Debt Management Plan

Italy's 2023 Debt Management plan foresees overall gross issuance of M-T/L-T securities between E310-320bln, vs an estimated E285bln in 2022. This amount (plus NGEU funds and cash) is estimated to meet funding needs in 2023 amounting to E260bln in maturing securities (net of BOT bills), and the gov't funding requirement of E90bln.

• This is probably on the slightly high side of estimates we have seen, but there was little market reaction to the release.

We will cover in more detail in our end-year EGB issuance publication, but a few observations on the Treasury's expectations for different segments:

• The monthly auction cycles will not change in 2023 (PDF calendar here).
• Short-Term BTPs will continue to feature in end-month auctions, but the amounts may be lower than in the past, as the Treasury aims to reduce issuance on the short end of the curve.
• 5Y sales will again be overweighted vs 3Y (E43bln vs E37bln in 2022). 7Y BTPs issuance should be in line with 2022 (E36bln); 10Y conversely could be higher vs prior (E40bln).
• Long-term BTP issuance (15, 20, 30, 50Y) could be higher than in 2022 (E31bln); potential syndications are foreseen.
• The Treasury is eyeing introducing new BTPei benchmarks in 2023.
• CCTeu issuance may be higher than in 2022, due in part to large maturities; a new 3-10Y benchmark is under consideration.
• The Treasury will consider larger amounts of Green issuance in 2022.
• One or more BTP Italia retail bond sales is expected.