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Itaú Predict Final 50BP Rate Hike Appropriate In March

COLOMBIA
  • Itaú noted Colombia’s current account deficit widened to 6.2% of GDP last year, from 5.6% in 2021, the highest since 2015. In the final quarter of 2022, a deficit of USD 4.9 billion was recorded (6.1% of GDP), narrowing USD 0.9 from one year earlier, in line with the Bloomberg market consensus.
  • An income deficit that remained high, but a smaller trade deficit led to a lower external imbalance in 4Q22, partially offset by higher profits from foreign investment in Colombia. At the margin, our own seasonal adjustment shows the annualized deficit at 5.5% of GDP in 4Q22, down from 6.6% as of 3Q22.
  • Itaú expect the current-account deficit to narrow further to 4.7% of GDP by end-2023, driven by greater remittances, still favorable oil prices, and the slowdown in domestic demand. A large CAD along with a still elevated inflation rate consolidates their view that another and final 50bp rate hike to 13.25% is appropriate later this month.
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