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Free AccessItaú Predict Final 50BP Rate Hike Appropriate In March
- Itaú noted Colombia’s current account deficit widened to 6.2% of GDP last year, from 5.6% in 2021, the highest since 2015. In the final quarter of 2022, a deficit of USD 4.9 billion was recorded (6.1% of GDP), narrowing USD 0.9 from one year earlier, in line with the Bloomberg market consensus.
- An income deficit that remained high, but a smaller trade deficit led to a lower external imbalance in 4Q22, partially offset by higher profits from foreign investment in Colombia. At the margin, our own seasonal adjustment shows the annualized deficit at 5.5% of GDP in 4Q22, down from 6.6% as of 3Q22.
- Itaú expect the current-account deficit to narrow further to 4.7% of GDP by end-2023, driven by greater remittances, still favorable oil prices, and the slowdown in domestic demand. A large CAD along with a still elevated inflation rate consolidates their view that another and final 50bp rate hike to 13.25% is appropriate later this month.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.