It's that time of the month again, with.......>

FOREX: It's that time of the month again, with focus on SOMA flows and month-end

portfolio rebalancing. Most banks are pointing to neutral-to-weak USD selling

from their rebalancing models. However, there are $12.6bn of SOMA flows today,

which are normally USD positive. So net-net overall, we could the USD moves

either way this afternoon.

- Citi's month-end model had been pointing to a relatively modest USD buying

signal in the preliminary estimate but has now switched to pointing to mild USD

sell signal due to the US equity recovery. However, they note that GBPUSD has

the strongest buy signal due to the poor performance of UK assets.

- Barclays: The passive rebalancing model at month-end points to a weak USD

selling vs. all majors

- Credit Agricole: Model expects month-end flows to be somewhat neutral, with a

mild USD sell signal against EUR and GBP.