J.P.Morgan Flag Upside Risk To Year End Yield Call

J.P.Morgan note that in the wake of the Georgia Senate run-offs "it becomes increasingly likely Congress could pass additional fiscal stimulus, thereby raising growth expectations in 2021. Our work has shown that 10-year yields tend to rise by 15-20bp for each 1%-point increase in consensus growth expectations. Thus it is no surprise that long-term yields have moved higher in response, driving 10-year yields to their highest levels since the throes of the market dysfunction in March 2020. All else equal, these developments leave upside risks to our 1.30% YE21 target for 10-year yields."