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COLOMBIA: Jan Consumer Confidence, BanRep’s Acosta Flags Need For Caution

COLOMBIA
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  • January consumer confidence figures are due later, with analysts looking for a small improvement in sentiment to its highest level since August 2022. These data will be followed by December trade, retail sales and IP numbers on Friday and Q4 GDP next Monday.
    • Jan. Consumer Confidence Index, est. -2.5, prior -3.4
  • Although growth is seen accelerating slightly in Q4, it is likely to remain sub-trend. The weak growth backdrop means that BanRep is still expected to resume rate cuts soon, perhaps at the March MPC meeting, after opting to pause the easing cycle last month. However, inflation risks remain a concern, and yesterday BanRep co-director Acosta said that the decline in inflation expectations has moderated, which requires a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
  • On the political front, President Petro continues his official visit to Dubai today, participating in the World Government Summit 2025. Tomorrow, BanRep Governor Villar and Finance Minister Guevara will participate in the Treasury Congress in Cartagena.
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  • January consumer confidence figures are due later, with analysts looking for a small improvement in sentiment to its highest level since August 2022. These data will be followed by December trade, retail sales and IP numbers on Friday and Q4 GDP next Monday.
    • Jan. Consumer Confidence Index, est. -2.5, prior -3.4
  • Although growth is seen accelerating slightly in Q4, it is likely to remain sub-trend. The weak growth backdrop means that BanRep is still expected to resume rate cuts soon, perhaps at the March MPC meeting, after opting to pause the easing cycle last month. However, inflation risks remain a concern, and yesterday BanRep co-director Acosta said that the decline in inflation expectations has moderated, which requires a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
  • On the political front, President Petro continues his official visit to Dubai today, participating in the World Government Summit 2025. Tomorrow, BanRep Governor Villar and Finance Minister Guevara will participate in the Treasury Congress in Cartagena.