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BRAZIL: January IPCA Inflation, Haddad Meets New Senate Leader

BRAZIL
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • IPCA inflation figures for January are due at 1200GMT(0700ET), with headline prices expected to rise by 0.17% m/m, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus, following a 0.52% gain in December. In annual terms, headline inflation is seen moderating to 4.58% y/y, from 4.83%, keeping it above the top of the BCB’s target band. A decline in electricity prices will help to contain headline inflation, offsetting a pick-up in transportation costs. Food prices pressure will also remain in focus, with another solid m/m gain expected.
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM, est. 0.17%, prior 0.52%
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY, est. 4.58%, prior 4.83%
  • JP Morgan says that the January inflation data should show core CPI under significant pressure, particularly due to high core services prices. Meanwhile, BBVA says that the data are unlikely to change the course of BCB hikes. They expect headline inflation to rise in February when the effect of the electricity credit has passed and think that inflation is unlikely to head much lower in 2025, keeping pressure on the BCB to communicate more hawkish forward guidance.
  • On the political front, Finance Minister Haddad has a meeting with the new Senate leader Davi Alcolumbre at 1700GMT(1200ET). He will then attend a meeting with President Lula, Chief of Staff Rui Costa and other ministers at 1830GMT(1330ET).
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  • IPCA inflation figures for January are due at 1200GMT(0700ET), with headline prices expected to rise by 0.17% m/m, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus, following a 0.52% gain in December. In annual terms, headline inflation is seen moderating to 4.58% y/y, from 4.83%, keeping it above the top of the BCB’s target band. A decline in electricity prices will help to contain headline inflation, offsetting a pick-up in transportation costs. Food prices pressure will also remain in focus, with another solid m/m gain expected.
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM, est. 0.17%, prior 0.52%
    • Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY, est. 4.58%, prior 4.83%
  • JP Morgan says that the January inflation data should show core CPI under significant pressure, particularly due to high core services prices. Meanwhile, BBVA says that the data are unlikely to change the course of BCB hikes. They expect headline inflation to rise in February when the effect of the electricity credit has passed and think that inflation is unlikely to head much lower in 2025, keeping pressure on the BCB to communicate more hawkish forward guidance.
  • On the political front, Finance Minister Haddad has a meeting with the new Senate leader Davi Alcolumbre at 1700GMT(1200ET). He will then attend a meeting with President Lula, Chief of Staff Rui Costa and other ministers at 1830GMT(1330ET).