Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy.....>

US DATA REACT: Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy noted "September ADP employment

rose 135K" and "the market was looking for an increase of 135K, so the September

data came in right on consensus expectation. The September increase follows a

revised 228K increase in August. The August data was initially released as a

237K rise which overestimated the 165K August private sector payrolls increase

by 72K."

- He adds that "due to an erratic correlation between the ADP and NFP releases,

JEF Economics has tended to shy away from revising payroll forecasts based on

ADP. Since today's data came in close to market expectations, this release is

not likely to inspire other forecasters to revise their forecasts. As of this

morning, the consensus call for September payrolls was +80K. The consensus call

on private payrolls was +74K."

- He said Jefferies Economics "projects a 45K decline in total payrolls and a

25K decline in private payrolls and will not make any revisions to these

projections based on the ADP release."