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JGBS: ***JGB futures went in to the lunch break 27 ticks higher at 150.98 as
demand for fixed income was underpinned by Italian election jitters & worries
over US trade tariff policy. The move represented an unwind of the bulk of
Friday's Kuroda-inspired sell off.
- The 7-Year sector outperformed the rest of the curve, while swaps from
10-Years out narrowed vs. JGBs.
- Open interest calculations suggest that new shorts were added on Friday's move
lower, but Morgan Stanley remain bullish on the super-long end of the curve. The
bank believes that Kuroda did not signal an exit and continue to expect
super-long JGBs to be favored over US Tsys heading into Japanese FY-end, which
they expect to exert further flattening pressure on the JGB curve.
- The stronger JPY/weaker Nikkei 225 backdrop also helped the JGB space garner a
- Risk events in the space this week include the BoJ MonPol decision, with
Kuroda's press conference set to garner additional attention this time out,
while traders will also eye the 2nd est. of Q4 GDP, & 30-Year JGB supply.