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US: Johnson Eyes Morning Vote On Plan C To Fund Govt, Few Clues On Strategy

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Polymarket shows the implied probability of a government shutdown dropped slightly from around 70% to 65% on headlines that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) intends to hold a vote this morning on a 'Plan C' spending plan.

  • The Hill reports that Johnson said upon entering the Capitol building: “Yeah, yeah, we have a plan. We’re expecting votes this morning, so you all stay tuned.”
  • Jake Sherman at Punchbowl points out: "...GOP has not filed a new bill yet today. So if Johnson plans to go to the floor this AM, he has to file that soon -- or he's going with another bill that's already filed. Again -- no same-day authority, so he can't get a rule vote."
  • In short, Johnson must release and file text soon, or he will be forced to push a new bill under suspension of rules requiring strong Democrat support. Or hold a second vote on the slimmed-down bill that failed to pass yesterday, with 38 mainly conservative Republicans joining with Dems.
  • Johnson may believe a meeting this morning between Vice President-elect JD Vance and the conservative Freedom Caucus has bridged the gap with conservatives. But Johnson's 'Plan B' bill includes a two-year suspension of the debt ceiling that was roundly panned by Democrats so faces rejection by the Democrat-controlled Senate.  
  • Some Capitol Hill reporters note that the most likely route out of the crisis is a short funding extension into January to allow lawmakers to keep the govt open during the Christmas recess, whilst negotiating a new plan. 
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Polymarket shows the implied probability of a government shutdown dropped slightly from around 70% to 65% on headlines that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) intends to hold a vote this morning on a 'Plan C' spending plan.

  • The Hill reports that Johnson said upon entering the Capitol building: “Yeah, yeah, we have a plan. We’re expecting votes this morning, so you all stay tuned.”
  • Jake Sherman at Punchbowl points out: "...GOP has not filed a new bill yet today. So if Johnson plans to go to the floor this AM, he has to file that soon -- or he's going with another bill that's already filed. Again -- no same-day authority, so he can't get a rule vote."
  • In short, Johnson must release and file text soon, or he will be forced to push a new bill under suspension of rules requiring strong Democrat support. Or hold a second vote on the slimmed-down bill that failed to pass yesterday, with 38 mainly conservative Republicans joining with Dems.
  • Johnson may believe a meeting this morning between Vice President-elect JD Vance and the conservative Freedom Caucus has bridged the gap with conservatives. But Johnson's 'Plan B' bill includes a two-year suspension of the debt ceiling that was roundly panned by Democrats so faces rejection by the Democrat-controlled Senate.  
  • Some Capitol Hill reporters note that the most likely route out of the crisis is a short funding extension into January to allow lawmakers to keep the govt open during the Christmas recess, whilst negotiating a new plan.