MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, April 17

MNI BRIEF: China To Quicken Project Construction - NDRC

MNI BRIEF:ECB Unifies Interest On Non-Monetary Policy Deposits

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1025 Weds; -5.39% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

VIEW CHANGE: BNP looks for first cut in August rather than June

March Final HICP Data Suggests “Easter Effects” Limited To Airfares

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +3.3% SA THRU APR 12 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Expect Adjustment of 1-Day Rate in March

HUNGARY
  • JPM say the fall in food inflation momentum could mean a significant reduction in food CPI in coming inflation prints, which could shave 5-6% pts from overall CPI. They estimate that core inflation was up 1.15% m/m seasonally adjusted, which translates into a deceleration in momentum from 18-20% in recent months to around 15% in February.
  • JPM expect the NBH to start unwinding the 18% 1-day deposit rate in March. The first move is likely to be a 100bp cut, although they see risks for a smaller move of 50bps or a later start to adjustment as the MPC has voiced caution and prudence.
  • While a smaller hike would make more sense for cautiousness, the central bank also has to worry about the cost of sterilizing a massive liquidity pool at such high rates.
  • Goldman continue to expect inflation to decline over the course of 2023 as energy and food inflationary pressures ease, although they think that core and underlying inflation will remain relatively strong.
  • Goldman think the ongoing HUF appreciation and improving external backdrop will likely support an announcement by the NBH at the next MPC meeting regarding the start of a gradual convergence of the 1-day deposit rate (18.0%) with the base rate (13.0%).
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.