MNI BRIEF: China SME Index Up In January

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY33 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1716 Tues; -1.53% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: 5-Yr Inflation Expectation Highest Since May-NY Fed

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, February 10

MNI BRIEF: PBOC'S Zou Promoted To Vice Governor Role

MNI: UK BRC JAN BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +2.5% YY, TOTAL +2.6% YY

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium, Finland Due Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, IT, EU Syndications Upcoming

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CZECHIA: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs Still Expecting Rate Cut Following Jan CPI

CZECHIA
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsCentral and Eastern EuropeCzechia
  • JP Morgan say the forcefulness in the Governor’s last week message in particular places a very high bar for backtracking, so even after today’s upside surprise, JPM think most likely the CNB will still cut 25bps to 3.75%. They expect the delivery to be hawkish, including a split vote 4-3 or 5-2, to signal that the cycle is approaching its end (unless some shock occurs). JPM see scope for either one or no more cuts the rest of this year.
  • Goldman Sachs note that the CNB’s November forecast only provides a monthly CPI profile to December, so it is not possible to say precisely how much today’s data has deviated from the CNB’s expectations. However, the November forecast has Q1-2025 averages of 2.9% for headline and 2.5% for core, so it is clear that today’s data remain below the CNB's expectations. Goldman Sachs expect the Board to resume its cutting cycle later today.
152 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • JP Morgan say the forcefulness in the Governor’s last week message in particular places a very high bar for backtracking, so even after today’s upside surprise, JPM think most likely the CNB will still cut 25bps to 3.75%. They expect the delivery to be hawkish, including a split vote 4-3 or 5-2, to signal that the cycle is approaching its end (unless some shock occurs). JPM see scope for either one or no more cuts the rest of this year.
  • Goldman Sachs note that the CNB’s November forecast only provides a monthly CPI profile to December, so it is not possible to say precisely how much today’s data has deviated from the CNB’s expectations. However, the November forecast has Q1-2025 averages of 2.9% for headline and 2.5% for core, so it is clear that today’s data remain below the CNB's expectations. Goldman Sachs expect the Board to resume its cutting cycle later today.