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JP Morgan Maintain Expectations of a 500bp Cut in October

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan maintain their expectation of 500bp hike at the October MPC meeting despite the dovish tilt in the MPC statement highlighting that monthly inflation is set to decline going forward.
  • They see upside risks on their end-2023 policy rate forecast of 35%, and end-2024 policy rate forecast of 45%.
  • After monthly inflation of 9.5% in July and 9.1% in August, the CBRT expects the underlying trend in monthly inflation is likely to decline going forward. The slowdown in monthly inflation is in line with JP Morgan’s expectations. That said, they think that the current monetary stance is not tight enough to achieve the projected disinflation in 2H24.
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