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JPM: BOS Supports Our Recent Jan Hike Call

CANADA
  • JPMorgan see yesterday’s 4Q21 Business Outlook Survey as confirming “increasing labor shortages and strong upward pressures on wages”.
  • This supports their recently changed view that the BoC will hike next week, having called for five hikes in 2022 last week.
  • Importantly, “a majority of firms anticipate inflation will be above the Bank of Canada’s target range (1% to 3%) over the next two years” and “Consumers’ one year ahead inflation expectations surge to the highest level since the beginning of the survey (back to 2014)”.
  • “The survey points to an economy operating at or near its productive capacity” and “the Bank places considerable weight on the survey and the results have been influential in past policy decision”.
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