JPM economist Daniel Silver said....>

US DATA PREVIEW: JPM economist Daniel Silver said JPM is "revising the 3Q GDP

growth forecast up to 3.0%" from its 2.5% prior estimate. (GDP is reported Oct

27th at 8;30am ET.) 

- He adds "we already had upside risk to our forecast going into this week, and

the upside surprise on the (1.6% Sept) retail sales data earlier this morning

pushed our tracking for the quarter even higher. The 10:00am release of the

August business inventory data did little to change our views on growth as the

updated inventory data looked very similar to the related readings that had

already been released over the past few weeks. We still think that inventories

will provide a significant boost to 3Q growth (around 1%-pt)."

- He adds "the strong reading" on 101.1 October Univ. of Mich. consumer

sentiment "does not factor into our GDP tracking (either for 3Q or 4Q), but it

does send an upbeat signal on 4Q growth early in the quarter."