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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessJPM Pull Forward Liftoff To March
- “December was no exception” to the labor market story of 2021 where there was unexpected failure of supply to keep up with the expected surge in demand.
- Nonfarm employment was just 199k (cons. 450k), albeit partially offset by positive revisions (+141k), yet the unemployment rate again surprised to the downside at 3.9%.
- “Less than a month ago the median FOMC participant thought the unemployment rate would move from 4.3% in 4Q21 to 3.5% in 4Q22. In one month the u-rate has made almost half that journey”.
- Further, stronger-than-expected average hourly earnings, at 0.6% M/M and 4.7% Y/Y, “failed to bring potential workers back into the labor force” with participation unchanged.
- JPM believe Fed officials are coming to the same conclusion that the labor market is very tight, “and that it may be a tough sell to hold off on the first hike until June, our prior call. We now see liftoff in March, followed by a quarterly pace of hikes thereafter.”
- The addition of three likely doves to the Board shouldn’t change this; “delaying liftoff much further only increases the chances of a hard landing, an outcome inconsistent with maintaining maximum employment”.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.