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MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, August 1

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RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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JPM Raises Terminal Rate to 4% Following Glapinski Conference

POLAND
  • JPM readjusts its expected rate path this year, on concrete NBP hawkish guidance.
  • The case for higher rates in Poland was always there, but JPM had to discount the policymaker’s lack of enthusiasm.
  • Until now JPM expected the rate hiking cycle to peak at 3.5% this year, go through a pause and restart next year.
  • Now, as the perception of what is “acceptable” for the NBP moves higher, JPM shifts its near-term peak rate to 4%, with two 50bp hikes in the next two meetings (March and April), and a final 25bp hike in May.
  • JPM continues to see a pause after that, as the likely decline in inflation in the second half of the year will likely be welcomed as a victory at the NBP.
  • Yet, that decline is unlikely to allow core CPI to fall much below 4%, and that means pressure to hike will re-emerge into late 2023.
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