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JPM See Average G10 FX Vol as Overvalued  by 1.3 Points

OPTIONS

JPMorgan's FX option screeners today flag that:

  • CAD, PLN, AUD, HUF and NZD vs. USD vols are a buy, while CNH, INR, RUB,
    KRW and TRY are a sell, according to their analysis, adding that ZAR, HUF,
    PLN, BRL, AUD, NZD, CAD, SEK, NOK skews offer value.
  • JPM see NOK 1y vols as rich by 3.7 vols while CAD, EUR, CHF, JPY vols are
    all below fair value. Their models now find the average G10 FX USD vol as
    overvalued by 1.3 vols.
  • They conclude that steady normalization of FX vols since mid-March imply
    more and more dislocations correcting on a weekly basis. They see NOK,
    BRL vols as slightly overvalued vs other G10 and EM vols, while the richness
    of AUD, NZD vols and cheapness of JPY vols has by now corrected. ZAR
    vol screens cheap vs. HUF and PLN vols. KRW vol is now slightly
    undervalued vs. Latam and other Asian vols. While HUF is modestly rich
    vs G10 and EM vols.

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