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JPM See Policy Rates Converging to 6.0% by December and 4.0% by Q224

PERU
  • JPM write that their own CPI forecast roughly aligns with the Board’s in the near term as they pencil in annual inflation converging to 6.8% and 5.3% by June and September.
  • They expect the interest rate stable at 7.75% until early 3Q23. By then, the pre-conditions required to reduce the real ex-ante rate could be fulfilled, offering the BCRP the possibility to ease monetary conditions. The policy rate is expected to converge to 6.0% by December 2023 and 4.0% by 2Q24.

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