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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
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JPMorgan Expect Monetary Easing To Begin In July
- JPMorgan have noted that the pre-conditions required to start reducing the increasingly tight real monetary stance could be fulfilled by early 3Q23. Thus, in their baseline the BCRP would able to start trimming the nominal policy rate already in July, to avoid inflicting additional downside pressure on activity ahead.
- As in prior months, pressures stemming from the social turmoil suffered in December and January persist on particular CPI components. Indeed, the breakdown shows May CPI was mostly impacted by ‘Food’ and ‘Restaurants & Hotels’ prices.
- But more important right now is the material softening of underlying inflation. Indeed, ex.-food and energy CPI logged just 0.08%m/m, in this case below JPM’s forecast. When adjusting for seasonality, the monthly variation translates into +0.05%m/m, sa and the 3-month average tanked to 2.9% annualized, from 4.4% by April.
- In all, JPMorgan maintain the call for further headline disinflation ahead, as the persistency of the 1Q23 shocks ebbs and headline gravitates to core levels. In terms of forecasts, they maintain Dec-23 headline CPI at 4.2%oya, but trim core by 20bp to 2.8%oya.
- JPM expect the policy rate to converge to 6.0% by December 2023, and 4.0% by 2Q24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.