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JPMorgan: Funds Rate Guidance May Not Change For Years

FED

JPM sees today's FOMC as likely "uneventful".

  • Statement: Fwd guidance on funds rate, "the most important part of the statement", "might not change for years to come, and almost certainly won't change" at this meeting. Likely needs to mark-to-market "economic activity and employment have continued to recover" given December jobs data.
  • Press conference: Doubt Powell will say something interesting.
  • Future action: Fed to announce tapering by year-end 2021 with unemployment approaching 5%; likely to begin raising the funds rate around early 2024.
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