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JPY: Fibo Resistance Cleared, Rate Pulls Back From Cycle High

CNH

Wednesday's rally took CNH/JPY above the 76.4% recovery of the 2018 - 2020 sell-off at Y16.8266, which limited gains in mid-March. The RSI has not yet entered overbought territory, but worth adding that it is struggling to print higher highs, even as a bearish divergence already developed in Feb/Mar. The pair had a brief look just above yesterday's cycle high but has eased off thereafter and last sits -300 pips at Y16.8370.

  • The nearby round figure of Y17.0000 provides the initial bullish target and a break here would expose Jun 13, 2018 high of Y17.3155, followed by May 22, 2018 high of Y17.4895. On the flip side, a retreat under Mar 24 low of Y16.6192 would reignite bearish momentum, clearing the way to the 50-DMA, which intersects at Y16.4749.


Fig. 1: CNH/JPY

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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