December 13, 2024 10:12 GMT
FOREX: JPY Offered, Helping USD/JPY to New Dec High
FOREX
- JPY has cemented its position as the poorest performing currency on the day - pressing USD/JPY closer to the Y153.50 level and new December highs. Gains accelerating here on the break of uptrendline resistance posted off the Dec04 high on the 15min candle chart.
- The JPY move certainly initially isolated to FX - evident in the spike in JPY futures volumes at 0940GMT, but is being partially aided by the uptick here in the US 10y yield, which remains below yesterday's closing high. A show above 4.3356% could bolster the move, opening 153.66, the 61.8% retracement for the Nov15 - Dec3 pullback.
- GBP trades poorly, softer against most others and prompting a 1.2619 print in GBP/USD, after the GDP release this morning showed another month of negative economic growth. While the 3M/3M figure remains positive, the poor momentum in the early months of the government may be causing some concern in cabinet.
- NOK trades well, supported by firmer oil prices today, helping extend the recovery off December lows for NOK/SEK, which holds just below 0.99. Both Norway and Sweden are set to hold rate decisions next week, at which the rate differential is expected to grow by a further 25bps thanks to an unchanged Norges Bank and a further 25bps cut at the Riksbank.
- Consequential datapoints are few and far between for the Friday session, although US Import/Export price indices could draw focus. ECB speak has been plentiful this morning following the rate decision yesterday, most of which continue to point toward the high likelihood of further rate cuts headed through the first half of 2025. Centeno is still set to speak later today, but the Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
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