Jul Labour Report Preview - 0700BST

ILO UE: BBG: 4.1%; Prev (Jun): 3.9%

Employment Change: -110k; Prev (Jun): -220k

AWE: BBG: -1.3% 3m y/y; Prev (Jun): -1.2% 3m y/y

AWE Ex-Bonus: BBG: -0.2% 3m y/y; Prev (Jun): -0.2% 3m y/y

• Markets are looking for a modest uptick in the UK jobless rate to 4.1% in Jul from 3.9% in Jun.
• Employment is forecast to decline by a further 110,000 in Jul following a decrease of 220,000 last month, which was the largest 3-month drop since Q2 2009.
• Jun's survey showed a rise of the claimant count by 94,000, shifting the rate up to 7.5% which is the highest level since Feb 1996, however, the rate also includes claimants for benefits other than unemployment allowance.
• Another worrying indicator are the hours worked, which fell to a record low in Q2.
• More up-to-date PAYE data revealed that the number of payroll employees fell by 2.5% in Jul compared to Mar which corresponds to 730,000 jobs lost since Mar.
• Survey data provides a downbeat outlook for the labour market in the coming months:
• The composite PMI noted another sharp decline in private sector employment with the rate of job shedding being the steepest since May.
• On the other hand, the KPMG/REC jobs report showed a modest uptick in hiring activity in Aug, driven by temporary billings instead of permanent placements which only rose slightly.
• The survey further mentioned a sharp rise in available candidates due to reports of redundancies.
• Despite an uptick of the BRC footfall monitor in Aug, the report notes that if city centres remain empty, additional job losses are likely in coming months.