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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessJune CPI: Surprise Unlikely To Shift Norges Bank Cut Expectations
Norwegian June inflation is due at 0700BST tomorrow. Consensus and the Norges Bank see CPI-ATE at 3.6% Y/Y (vs 4.1% prior).
- Following the more hawkish than expected June Norges Bank decision, current consensus is split between a first rate cut in December ‘24 (which would be dovish relative to the Norges Bank’s June rate path) and March ‘25 (more consistent with the rate path).
- We think that any surprise to CPI-ATE tomorrow will need to be taken alongside the July inflation data (due August 9) before meaningfully altering market expectations for the first cut.
- Nonetheless, a higher-than-expected reading would see the 20-day EMA at 11.4334 in EURNOK as the first support, with initial resistance at 11.5679 (50% retracement of the May 1 – June 21 sell-off).
- Looking at the breakdown of the Bloomberg consensus, Danske Bank expect a 3.5% Y/Y CPI-ATE reading while Citi (3.7% Y/Y) and DNB (3.8% Y/Y) hold above-consensus views. See below for DNB’s commentary ahead of the release:
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.