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June Final CPI at 25-Year High of 15.5%

POLAND
MNI (London)

POLAND JUN FINAL CPI +1.5% M/M (FLSH +1.5%); MAY +1.7% M/M

POLAND JUN FINAL CPI +15.5%r Y/Y (FLSH +15.6%); MAY +13.9% Y/Y

  • The June final print saw a small 0.1pp downwards revision on the headline number, leaving inflation up 1.6pp from May at a 25-year high of +15.5% y/y.
  • Goods inflation accounted for the bulk of upwards pressure at +16.8% y/y, whilst service prices saw a softer acceleration of +11.5% y/y.
  • Energy prices continue to push transport costs up, with energy accounting for 1pp of the month-on-month increase, whilst food largely accounted for the remaining 0.5pp. This translated into a 33.5% y/y increase in transport costs, 31.1% y/y increase in dwelling and 14.8% y/y increase in food costs.
  • Poland's core CPI print for June is due on Monday, and is anticipated to accelerate by 0.8pp to +9.3% y/y.
  • The war in neighbouring Ukraine and associated hike in energy and food costs continue to see Polish prices soar above the NBP's 1.5-3.5% target range. The Polish central bank's forecasts were released on Tuesday, whereby inflation was forecasted to peak at +18.8% y/y in Q1 2023, cooling off to +6.7% y/y by Q4 2023.

Source: Statistics Poland

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