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June FRA/OIS At New YTD Highs But Well Off 2022 Levels

STIR
  • June FRA/OIS sees a second 5+bps increase on the day at 21.5bps (+6bp), nudging 1.5bp higher since the Libor fix, having held at a very low 11-13bps through late Feb until yesterday before SVB concerns came to the fore.
  • It’s at highs since Dec’22 but remains off 2022 highs of 35bps from August after continued funding stress following the Fed’s shift to a 75bp hiking pace in June which it continued for four meetings up to and including Nov.
  • The potential for funding stress is also being felt in cross-currency basis swaps, with 12m ESTR/SOFR swaps dropping as much as 4.5bps on the day to -25bps. This is a considerable shift and the biggest one-day down-move since early June last year. This puts USD funding costs at their highest level relative to the EUR since mid-January.


June Fra/OIS spread (white) and 12M ESTR/SOFR spread (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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