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June Inflation Data, BCRA Expected To Hold Key Rate

ARGENTINA
  • Statistics agency INDEC is scheduled to publish June inflation data later today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that inflation decelerated slightly to +6.95% m/m last month. The CPI figures are due at 2000BST/1500ET:
    • June Greater Buenos Aires CPI M/m, prior 8.00%; Y/y, prior 116.30%
    • June National CPI M/m, est. 6.95%, prior 7.80%; Y/y, est. 118.00%, prior 114.20%
  • Analysts note that the central bank will meet later on Thursday with consensus expecting it will keep the policy rate at 97%. Reports suggest the BCRA will likely point to the relative slowdown in price gains and that policymakers may also cite the decline in inflation expectations in its June survey as a reason to stand pat.
  • For reference, the BCRA’s June survey of analyst expectations showed a median forecast for inflation in the next 12 months of 161.4%, down from 171.1% in May. That followed sharp advances in the preceding five months.
  • It is also worth noting that this is likely the last rate announcement ahead of the Aug. 13 primaries for the October presidential election.
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