June retail sales +0.5% vs +0.6% expected,..>

US DATA: June retail sales +0.5% vs +0.6% expected, and below the 

whisper +0.8%. Ex-mtr veh +0.4% vs +0.3% exp. May sales were revised 

sharply higher, April sales revised slightly lower, so market reaction 

to the weaker-than-expected headline figure will be tempered by May.

- Vehicle sales +0.9%, in line with analysts expectation for a solid 

gain. There were gains and losses in a number of the other components.

- Analysts have overestimated retail sales in seven of the last 10 

years, with overestimate of ex-motor vehicle sales in nine of the last 

10 years, so today's data are in line with that trend for the overall 

figure.

- Gas station sales +1.0%, accounting for some of the headline gain, but 

June sales ex. mtr veh and gas still +0.3% and flat ex auto, bldg mat, 

gas and food services, confirming some slowdown from May.

- Building materials sales +0.8%, while food services +1.5% and clothing 

sales -2.5%. 

- For 2Q as a whole, retail sales were +7.9% SAAR from the 1Q average. 

Ex-mtr veh, 2Q sales were +7.7% SAAR, and were +6.5% ex. autos, 

bldg materials, gas, and food services, all pointing to strong 2Q PCE.