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GILTS: Just Off Highs As Bonds Recover & Oil Sells Off, BoE & Month-End Eyed

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

 A bid in wider core global FI markets, coupled with potential month-end demand (given the size of related projections), allows gilts to rally in recent trade

  • Weakness in crude oil also provides support.
  • Futures still shy of session highs at 92.93, last +25 at 92.87.
  • Bulls target the Dec 20 high (93.09). A break there would further deepen the threat to the medium-term bearish technical trend.
  • Yields 1.5-5bp lower, curve bull steepens.
  • 2s threatening the first clean break below 4.20% since early December.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing 23.5bp of cuts for next week’s meeting, 44bp through May and 76bp through year-end.
  • Dec ’25 BoE-dated OIS hit a dovish cycle extreme earlier today, briefly showing ~77bp of cuts.
  • We continue to look for cuts in February and May, with the H2 market-implied rate cutting path still looking a little flat to us.
  • SONIA futures flat to +5.0
  • Expect our usual detailed BoE preview ahead of next week’s decision.

BoE Meeting

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 A bid in wider core global FI markets, coupled with potential month-end demand (given the size of related projections), allows gilts to rally in recent trade

  • Weakness in crude oil also provides support.
  • Futures still shy of session highs at 92.93, last +25 at 92.87.
  • Bulls target the Dec 20 high (93.09). A break there would further deepen the threat to the medium-term bearish technical trend.
  • Yields 1.5-5bp lower, curve bull steepens.
  • 2s threatening the first clean break below 4.20% since early December.
  • BoE-dated OIS showing 23.5bp of cuts for next week’s meeting, 44bp through May and 76bp through year-end.
  • Dec ’25 BoE-dated OIS hit a dovish cycle extreme earlier today, briefly showing ~77bp of cuts.
  • We continue to look for cuts in February and May, with the H2 market-implied rate cutting path still looking a little flat to us.
  • SONIA futures flat to +5.0
  • Expect our usual detailed BoE preview ahead of next week’s decision.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less