FOMC members have kept the door open to at least one more 2024 cut, but have likely closed the door to another 50bp.
- First, with Powell’s lead, participants have played down the perception that September’s 50bp cut represented a new normal.
- Second, there has been limited concern about the signal sent from the strong payrolls figure from the participants we have heard from since its release on Oct 4.
- Third, as a result of the uncertainties over current restrictiveness and the ultimate destination for rates, several participants emphasized the need for a cautious “meeting-by-meeting” approach to cutting.
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