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UK DATA: KPMG/REC Report on Jobs Paints Another Gloomy Picture for UK Labour Mkt

UK DATA
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The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs for January pointed to another downbeat assessment of the UK labour market.

  • Most notable is probably that permanent salary growth eased to the "slowest in the current sequence of inflation" and was "well below the historical trend."
  • Permanent placements continued to fall (at a relatively similar pace albeit slightly slower than in December). But perhaps more significantly, temporary placements fell at their fastest pace since mid-2020.
  • Vacancies fell with the press release noting for permanent workers "the rate of contraction accelerating for the fifth successive month to a near four-and-a-half-year peak."
  • Data was collected 9-27 January.
  • In terms of implications for the MPC, this is a relatively closely watched release but we don't think it will be enough to really change any individual member's view. In many ways it just reinforces the signals seen in recent months. As we noted in our BOE Review, we think that we need one of Bailey, Breeden or Lombardelli to soften their stance if we are to see a March cut.
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The KPMG/REC Report on Jobs for January pointed to another downbeat assessment of the UK labour market.

  • Most notable is probably that permanent salary growth eased to the "slowest in the current sequence of inflation" and was "well below the historical trend."
  • Permanent placements continued to fall (at a relatively similar pace albeit slightly slower than in December). But perhaps more significantly, temporary placements fell at their fastest pace since mid-2020.
  • Vacancies fell with the press release noting for permanent workers "the rate of contraction accelerating for the fifth successive month to a near four-and-a-half-year peak."
  • Data was collected 9-27 January.
  • In terms of implications for the MPC, this is a relatively closely watched release but we don't think it will be enough to really change any individual member's view. In many ways it just reinforces the signals seen in recent months. As we noted in our BOE Review, we think that we need one of Bailey, Breeden or Lombardelli to soften their stance if we are to see a March cut.