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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 17 Feb

Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
HomepageEurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneMarketsStory

For the full PDF with more including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, click here.

  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst Italy is scheduled to launch its inaugural retail BTP Piu.
  • The ESM is likely to hold a syndication with possible syndications also to come from Belgium and Germany.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E40.6bln (excluding the retail operation), down from E50.9bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions of E38.7bln of which E30.5bln are from a formerly 10-year Bund, E6.0bln from a formerly 7-year EFSF bond and E2.2bln from a formerly 7-year Greek GGB.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E5.7bln of which E2.5bln are German, E1.4bln are Austrian, E0.7bln are Italian, E0.6bln are Portuguese and E0.2bln are Irish.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E3.8bln, vs positive E50.5bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • The ESM on Wednesday 12 February sent a Request for Proposal with regards to an upcoming syndicated transaction. We expect a transaction for Monday/Tuesday in the upcoming week, and had flagged this possibility in our daily publication.
    • We pencil in a E2-3bln transaction size. Regarding the maturity on offer, we note that the ESM hasn’t issued a bond with longer than 10.5 years to maturity since 2018 and we would be surprised to see a longer maturity issued in the upcoming transaction. However, Greece’s borrowing under the ESM not due to be fully repaid until 2060 so a longer-dated transaction cannot be fully ruled out.
  • Italy will launch its inaugural Feb-33 BTP Piu (ISIN: IT0005634792) in the upcoming week with books open between Monday and Friday. The BTP Piu will form part of the BTP Valore family and will include an option for an early redemption after 4 years as well as a step-up coupon. The minimum coupon rates are 2.80% for years 1-4 and 3.60% for years 5-8.
  • On Monday, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction to sell the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • On Tuesday, Germany will sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22080).
  • Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction to sell up to a combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 5-year 2.50% Apr-30 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000577952) and the 10-year 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104), this is in-line with our expectations.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
  • On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction. On offer will be the on-the-run 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59) and the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) alongside the 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78). The size will be announced on Monday.
  • Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction selling a combined E11.5-13.5bln. The new 3-year 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the 0% Nov-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013451507) and the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) will be on offer.
    • The launch of the new 2.40% Sep-28 OAT at the upcoming week's MT OAT auction was in line with our expectations.
    • The auction size represents another step up - the E13.5bln at the top of the target range would represent another record for a French auction if achieved. Previously the largest auction has been E13.0bln (which we have seen in the other three French auctions this year.)
    • Note that this also follows the large syndications (including the record E10bln for the long 15-year in January and the E8.0bln 30-year on Wednesday - albeit with the latter matching last year's 30-year size).
  • Later on Thursday, France will return to hold a IL OAT auction to issue a combined E1.50-2.25bln. the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38). The 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.95% Jul-43 OATei (ISIN: FR001400QCA1) and the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) will be on offer.

 

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For the full PDF with more including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, click here.

  • Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst Italy is scheduled to launch its inaugural retail BTP Piu.
  • The ESM is likely to hold a syndication with possible syndications also to come from Belgium and Germany.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E40.6bln (excluding the retail operation), down from E50.9bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions of E38.7bln of which E30.5bln are from a formerly 10-year Bund, E6.0bln from a formerly 7-year EFSF bond and E2.2bln from a formerly 7-year Greek GGB.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E5.7bln of which E2.5bln are German, E1.4bln are Austrian, E0.7bln are Italian, E0.6bln are Portuguese and E0.2bln are Irish.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E3.8bln, vs positive E50.5bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • The ESM on Wednesday 12 February sent a Request for Proposal with regards to an upcoming syndicated transaction. We expect a transaction for Monday/Tuesday in the upcoming week, and had flagged this possibility in our daily publication.
    • We pencil in a E2-3bln transaction size. Regarding the maturity on offer, we note that the ESM hasn’t issued a bond with longer than 10.5 years to maturity since 2018 and we would be surprised to see a longer maturity issued in the upcoming transaction. However, Greece’s borrowing under the ESM not due to be fully repaid until 2060 so a longer-dated transaction cannot be fully ruled out.
  • Italy will launch its inaugural Feb-33 BTP Piu (ISIN: IT0005634792) in the upcoming week with books open between Monday and Friday. The BTP Piu will form part of the BTP Valore family and will include an option for an early redemption after 4 years as well as a step-up coupon. The minimum coupon rates are 2.80% for years 1-4 and 3.60% for years 5-8.
  • On Monday, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction to sell the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • On Tuesday, Germany will sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22080).
  • Also on Tuesday, Finland will hold a conventional auction to sell up to a combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 5-year 2.50% Apr-30 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000577952) and the 10-year 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104), this is in-line with our expectations.
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
  • On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction. On offer will be the on-the-run 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59) and the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) alongside the 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78). The size will be announced on Monday.
  • Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction selling a combined E11.5-13.5bln. The new 3-year 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the 0% Nov-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013451507) and the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) will be on offer.
    • The launch of the new 2.40% Sep-28 OAT at the upcoming week's MT OAT auction was in line with our expectations.
    • The auction size represents another step up - the E13.5bln at the top of the target range would represent another record for a French auction if achieved. Previously the largest auction has been E13.0bln (which we have seen in the other three French auctions this year.)
    • Note that this also follows the large syndications (including the record E10bln for the long 15-year in January and the E8.0bln 30-year on Wednesday - albeit with the latter matching last year's 30-year size).
  • Later on Thursday, France will return to hold a IL OAT auction to issue a combined E1.50-2.25bln. the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38). The 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.95% Jul-43 OATei (ISIN: FR001400QCA1) and the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) will be on offer.