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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK
  • The highlight of the morning will be UK labour market data which is due at 7:00BST. As well as the headline numbers for June (recall that most businesses reopened on 17 May and all legal restrictions including social distancing were removed on 21 June), there will be focus on the more timely experimental HMRC data payroll data for July. Labour market data is arguably the most important data for the Bank of England right now, whose forecasts show that the peak in unemployment has already happened (before the furlough scheme has ended).
  • The pound has not really reacted immediately to labour market data in recent months, and it would probably take a decent surprise in the data to have a reaction today. Nevertheless, the data are worth watching as they feed into the wider debate of when will the Bank hike and, more importantly for the pound, where will rates be in two years time (see our recent MNI Market Analysis: Does the timing of the first rate hike matter to FX).
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