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Lagarde: Attentive To 2nd Round Inflation Effects

ECB

Q: What can interest rates do when much of the inflation is imported?

  • A: A large portion of the inflation is attributable directly or indirectly to terms of trade.
  • We are clearly seeing an unprecedented 75% of inflation items being above 2%, which applies to services and non-energy industry goods.
  • We are very attentive to wages and second round effects. We are not seeing the risk of spiralling, but we are seeing a pickup in wages. We are aware Germany will implement the minimum wage as of October 1.

Q: Why do you not expect too much of a recession risk?

  • A: On the negative front, the continued impact of the War, renewed lockdowns in China and reduced disposable income are risks. On the other hand, there are entire sectors of the economy such as hospitality and tourism that are recovering.
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