GERMANY: Latest Major Poll Shows 3-Party Coalition May Be Needed (1/2)

YouGov has published its second major 'multilevel regression and post-stratification' (MRP) poll ahead of the 23 Feb federal election. The poll returned broadly similar support levels to the first MRP, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) in first place, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in second, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) third. However, some new developments could have wide-ranging impacts on political stability post-election. 

• Compared to the previous MRP, all parties record a decline in their 'central' seat projections (i.e. party support coming in the middle rather than the high or low end of expectations). This comes as the far-left progressive Die Linke (The Left) retains seats in the Bundestag as part of the core scenario, having fallen below the threshold in the previous MRP.
• The poll shows that the most important issue raised by respondents by a significant margin is immigration and asylum. Thirty-five percent chose it as their number one. The economy was next, raised as the most important issue by 16% of respondents.
• The focus on immigration is also cross-party, with CDU/CSU, SPD, AfD, pro-business liberal Free Democrat (FDP) and far-left nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) supporters each selecting it as the most important issue in the election.
• The clear prominence of the issue is likely to mean a tougher line on immigration post-election no matter the make-up of the next coalition, potentially setting up disagreements with neighbouring countries and the EU. 

Chart 1. Lower and higher range of estimated national-level results, Seat Projections