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Less Than 75bp Of Fed Cuts In 2024

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted with the US coming to their desks after earlier softening overnight. Whilst off yesterday’s peak for the week for 2H24 rates, the less than 75bp of cuts in 2024 is near levels at the close after last week’s hawkish FOMC dot plot.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +6bp for Nov (unch), +11.5bp for Dec (unch) and +13.5bp for Jan (+0.5bp) to a terminal 5.46%.
  • Cuts from terminal: 20bp to Jun’24 (from 19bp) and 72.5bp to Dec’24 (unch).
  • Notable Fedspeak ahead today, highlighted by Chair Powell’s Town Hall discussion at 1600ET. Additional commentary through the day from Goolsbee (’23), Gov. Cook (voter) and Barkin (’24 voter), along with finalized GDP and national account benchmark revisions plus weekly jobless claims.

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