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SWEDEN: LFS Unemployment Rate Below Consensus, But Conditions Still Weak

SWEDEN
SwedenCEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The Swedish November LFS unemployment rate was 3 tenths below consensus at 8.3% (vs 8.4% prior). The 3mma of the rate was steady at 8.4%, a little below the cycle high of 8.5% in September.

  • The fall in the unemployment rate was due to a slight decline in the labour force.
  • Employment growth was negative for the second consecutive month at -0.2% M/M, with 3m/3m growth at -0.6%, its weakest since October 2023.
  • In line with yesterday’s PES data, conditions in the labour market remain weak at an aggregate level. This supports the Riksbank’s base case for further easing, with the central bank signalling two more cuts in December and H1 2025 at the November decision.
  • Overall, the weak employment growth may weigh slightly on the rate path presented at the Riksbank’s December decision.

Note: Bullet republished to correct genre.

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The Swedish November LFS unemployment rate was 3 tenths below consensus at 8.3% (vs 8.4% prior). The 3mma of the rate was steady at 8.4%, a little below the cycle high of 8.5% in September.

  • The fall in the unemployment rate was due to a slight decline in the labour force.
  • Employment growth was negative for the second consecutive month at -0.2% M/M, with 3m/3m growth at -0.6%, its weakest since October 2023.
  • In line with yesterday’s PES data, conditions in the labour market remain weak at an aggregate level. This supports the Riksbank’s base case for further easing, with the central bank signalling two more cuts in December and H1 2025 at the November decision.
  • Overall, the weak employment growth may weigh slightly on the rate path presented at the Riksbank’s December decision.

Note: Bullet republished to correct genre.