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Little Changed In Asia; Supply Outlook Remains Tight

OIL

WTI is ~+$0.30 and Brent is ~+$0.10 at typing, back from best levels, and operating a little above their respective lows observed on Thursday after U.S. Q2 advance GDP dipped into negative territory, exacerbating recession-related worry. Both benchmarks nonetheless remain on track to end higher this week, with WTI looking to snap a three-week streak of lower closes.

  • A well-documented moderation in Fed rate hike expectations following the recent FOMC decision continues to support crude’s recovery in recent sessions (amidst the easing of prior worry re: a Fed-led economic slowdown/contraction), adding to the previously-flagged easing of demand worry from some quarters (particularly the rebound in U.S. gasoline demand).
  • Looking to OPEC+, RTRS source reports have pointed to the group considering to keep the Sep output target unchanged at next week’s meeting (with RTRS sources simultaneously saying that the White House is “optimistic” re: the odds of an output increase), keeping in mind that Argus Media source reports earlier in the week suggested that OPEC+ output shortfalls had worsened in June to ~2.8mn bpd, highlighting long-standing output production issues faced by some members.
  • The CEOs of Total Energy and Shell have stated (amidst the backdrop of highly-publicised earnings outperformance in the sector this week) that crude supplies remain tight, with the latter highlighting the lack of spare capacity out of the U.S. and OPEC, even ahead of the full implementation of sanctions on Russian crude.
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WTI is ~+$0.30 and Brent is ~+$0.10 at typing, back from best levels, and operating a little above their respective lows observed on Thursday after U.S. Q2 advance GDP dipped into negative territory, exacerbating recession-related worry. Both benchmarks nonetheless remain on track to end higher this week, with WTI looking to snap a three-week streak of lower closes.

  • A well-documented moderation in Fed rate hike expectations following the recent FOMC decision continues to support crude’s recovery in recent sessions (amidst the easing of prior worry re: a Fed-led economic slowdown/contraction), adding to the previously-flagged easing of demand worry from some quarters (particularly the rebound in U.S. gasoline demand).
  • Looking to OPEC+, RTRS source reports have pointed to the group considering to keep the Sep output target unchanged at next week’s meeting (with RTRS sources simultaneously saying that the White House is “optimistic” re: the odds of an output increase), keeping in mind that Argus Media source reports earlier in the week suggested that OPEC+ output shortfalls had worsened in June to ~2.8mn bpd, highlighting long-standing output production issues faced by some members.
  • The CEOs of Total Energy and Shell have stated (amidst the backdrop of highly-publicised earnings outperformance in the sector this week) that crude supplies remain tight, with the latter highlighting the lack of spare capacity out of the U.S. and OPEC, even ahead of the full implementation of sanctions on Russian crude.