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Little Impact From Kashkari Sunday, Goolsbee Next Up

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged up marginally since Friday’s close, with still only a cumulative 9bp of tightening priced over the two meetings to November for a terminal 5.42% vs the median June dot showing another hike. It’s then followed by 52bp of cuts to Jun’24 and a cumulative 122bps to Dec’24.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +5.5bp Sep (+1bp), +9bp Nov (unch).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (unch), 52bp to Jun’24 (from 53bp Fri close), 122bp to Dec’24 (from 124bp).
  • Kashkari (’23 voter) kickstarted post-FOMC Fedspeak yesterday with balanced rather than outright hawkish comments on CBS (inflation outlook “quite positive” but “if we need to hike, raise rates further from here, we will do so”). A typically more dovish Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’23 voter) is next up at 0920ET in a Yahoo Finance interview.

Source: Bloomberg

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