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STIR: Little Lasting Reaction To Stronger-than-expected Germany Factory Orders

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Euribor futures are -1.0 to -2.5 ticks through the blues, softening alongside core FI overnight. There was little lasting reaction to the stronger-than-expected German factory orders data.

  • ECB-dated OIS fully price a 25bp cut in March, with 18bs of sequential cuts priced through the April and June decisions.
  • In an interview with Reuters, Executive Board member Cipollone joined colleagues de Guindos and Lane in playing down the impact of the neutral rate in calibrating near-term policy.
  • While he stuck to the familiar message of the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach, he seemed open to reassessing the ECB’s concept of restrictiveness if “the [economic] recovery is not as strong as expected".
  • Yesterday evening, Bank of Portgual Governor Centeno struck a characteristically dovish tone, saying rates may need to fall “below neutral”.
  • Vujcic, Nagel and Escriva are scheduled to speak today (though the latter two at a BIS conference on payments/digital currencies).
  • Eurozone December retail sales are expected to improve on an annual basis, while any spillovers from the BOE decision will be eyed at midday.
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Euribor futures are -1.0 to -2.5 ticks through the blues, softening alongside core FI overnight. There was little lasting reaction to the stronger-than-expected German factory orders data.

  • ECB-dated OIS fully price a 25bp cut in March, with 18bs of sequential cuts priced through the April and June decisions.
  • In an interview with Reuters, Executive Board member Cipollone joined colleagues de Guindos and Lane in playing down the impact of the neutral rate in calibrating near-term policy.
  • While he stuck to the familiar message of the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach, he seemed open to reassessing the ECB’s concept of restrictiveness if “the [economic] recovery is not as strong as expected".
  • Yesterday evening, Bank of Portgual Governor Centeno struck a characteristically dovish tone, saying rates may need to fall “below neutral”.
  • Vujcic, Nagel and Escriva are scheduled to speak today (though the latter two at a BIS conference on payments/digital currencies).
  • Eurozone December retail sales are expected to improve on an annual basis, while any spillovers from the BOE decision will be eyed at midday.