Free Trial

Loan Default Rates, Focus Survey Sees 2024 Year-End Selic At 8.25%

BRAZIL
  • Focus remains on Lula’s potential cabinet picks and in particular his choice for economy minister. Former Workers’ Party presidential candidate, Fernando Haddad, continues to be the front-runner for the post, despite headlines on Friday where he said he had not been invited to be finance minister by the president-elect.
    • Haddad joined Lula in his trip to Brasilia Sunday night to attend meetings with allies starting today. This represents their second trip together, which reinforces the view Haddad is getting closer to the Lula and is the most likely person to be given control of Latin America’s biggest economy.
  • Released this morning:
  • Bank lending was 5,161b reais in Sept., according to the Central bank’s bank lending report.
    • Personal loan default rate rises to 5.9% vs 5.8% in previous month.
    • Business loan default rate rises to 2.0% vs 1.9% in previous month.
  • This morning’s release of the BCB Focus Survey saw very minor adjustments to inflation and GDP forecasts with 2022 year-end inflation raised to 5.91% from 5.88% and 2023 year-end inflation raised to 5.02% from 5.01%. Of note, the 2024 year-end Selic rate was raised to 8.25% from 8.00%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.