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Local Banks See CPI Bolstering Case for May Rate Hike

NORWAY
A few sell-side takes on this morning's Norwegian CPI release:
  • Handelsbanken write: The data clearly points to another rate hike in May, The outcome was as expected, and as such is neutral to the outlook for the key policy rate. There are reasons to believe that CPI-ATE is about to pass its peak. But at the same time, it will take time to bring the core inflation rate any closer to its target again.
  • Swedbank: Passthrough of higher inflation is becoming more broad-based, suggesting price momentum is still too strong for Norges Bank to back down from rate hikes anytime soon. A hike in May and also June should be priced with a higher probability.
  • SEB: We predict continued acceleration over the next 4-5 months and forecast CPI-ATE to slightly exceed Norges Bank’s trajectory. CPI, combined with a still-strong labour market, supports Norges Bank’s guidance of a 25bps rate hike in May.
  • Nordea: It is highly likely that Norges Bank will stick to their planned rate hike to 3.25% in May. We (still) expect a rate top at 3.75% during the summer.

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