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Bounce Considered Corrective

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Long End GoCs Outperform With Various Factors At Play

CANADA
  • GoCs move in lockstep with Treasuries at the front end (2YY -2.9bps vs -2.7bp Tsys) but have seen growing outperformance at the long end (10YY -6.2bps vs +2.6bp for Tsys).
  • Long-end outperformance accelerated after the local 5Y auction, whilst Foreign Minister Joly called China an “increasingly disruptive global power”.
  • Whilst not a direct driver but broadly supportive of the move, real estate lender Romspen halting redemptions because “loan payoff activity remains suppressed” added to anecdotal evidence of pressures from high household debt.

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